Reflections from Copenhagen: Moving Forward
December 28, 2009
This December, 2009 in Copenhagen, we saw that largest meeting of world leaders outside of New York in history, and they were talking about climate change. This fact alone is a significant achievement. It significant, but unsatisfactory considering the amount of action required to adequately address the climate crisis.
It was easy to get caught up in the details of the negotiations in Copenhagen and then when everything seemed to fall apart, feel deflated. I have now had the opportunity to sit back and reflect on what happened. I must say, that although we did not see the emergence of a fair, ambitious and binding treaty, there is much to be positive about. Namely, the popularization of climate change as an issue we must all pay attention to, care about, and act upon.
It is clear that the world now agrees that this issue is one that is real and must be addressed for the survival of our species and our current standard of living. It also is clear that the response to this greatest of challenges must have at it’s core the goals of equity, fairness and ambition to rival anything ever done before in human history. The political will has risen dramatically in the last few months, and I believe it will continue to bubble over until governments understand that there is a clear mandate to act, and to act now. It seems that this time is here in some areas of the world, and is coming down the road (hopefully sooner rather than later) in others.
As Yvo de Boer stated in his final press conference, the Copenhagen Accord can be seen as a letter of intent and a willingness to move forward. It will provide the basic architecture to respond to climate change, however, there is a great deal of work to be done to outline the way we will get there, the legal avenues, the pragmatic responses, the targets and the action that is urgently needed. We must step up the pace.
In the coming weeks I will provide more detailed analysis of the various discussions from COP 15 and post them here. In the meantime enjoy the light reading of the Copenhagen Accord.
As a small testament to the amount interest in the conference even by the officially accredited – see the video of the legendary COP 15 lines.
A Weak Deal Has Been “Taken Note Of”
December 19, 2009
I think we have just seen the death of multilateralism.
I am really upset right now, both because my computer got stolen last night at a viewing “party”, and that we have no strong agreement. It was not a good day!
The U.N. System is based on respect of state-sovereignty, cooperation and, when possible, consensus. All of that was seemingly disrespected when the 120 heads of state converged in Copenhagen yesterday.
The U.S. came in and steamrolled over 180+ countries (basically only talking to the major developing country emitters – China, India, Brazil and South Africa) to “hammer out” a deal. Obama gave a press conference at 11pm telling the press that there is a deal, but it was obvious it was a trying situation for him to be in, as the realities of the U.S. situation made it virtually impossible for the U.S. to take on any real commitments here. Some developing countries called him a emperor trying to hold on to the position of major world power. Obama breezed in and out on AF1, saying “the negotiators can finish up here”. However, finishing up was not as easy as he made it sound.
It took another 8 hours of bitter fighting before the Copenhagen Accord was grudgingly accepted by the UN countries. It does little to create a strong response to global warming. It has no binding commitments, but does put into place a mechanism for funding to the most vulnerable countries and requires transparency on monitoring, verification and reporting from major developing country emitters. There are two important steps. However they are grossly insufficient and disappointing for many who came here to see a real deal be forged.
The next meeting may be held, 6 months ahead of schedule in July, in Mexico. It’s not over yet – we must keep the momentum moving in the UN process. However, it’s time to recognize that other fora will be the place where the real work is done.
More details on the outcomes of COP15 in the days to come – when I buy a new computer.
Leaders Converge: Get Closer to a Deal, but not “THE” Deal
December 17, 2009
inside "plenary 1"
Today only 300 individuals from NGOs were allowed in the Bella Centre. These individuals are the only ones allowed in over the next two days, other than Media and individuals on party delegations. It’s a very different experience now that I am excluded from the venue. I tried to stay on top of the negotiations via live feed from the centre and email/internet updates, but it was much more difficult.
I attended the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) side events; one on local, regional and state/provincial initiatives and the other on regulatory oversight of the carbon markets. In the former, Minister Gerretsen told us about the initiatives currently happening in Ontario. I also attended a session about regulation of carbon markets and sat in on parts of a few other session on various issues of emissions trading.
There was a reception with Al Gore and a small group of The Climate Project presenters from around the world in the evening at the Crowne Plaza hotel (forgot my camera – sorry).
Mr. Gore was very positive about these negotiations, although he was deeply disappointed we are not going to come to a better result. He stressed that this is not good enough, and that we must keep going. It was a very inspiring speech.
Update on where things stand at this hour.
From what I can tell with my limited access, the talks have moved considerably. There is good financing on the table. Hilary Clinton came and declared that the U.S. will contribute to a $100 billion as long as conditions of transparency and MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) are met by developing countries (namely China).
Apparently, Canada has agreed to go forward with a 1990 base year in the Kyoto Protocol track of the negotiations, which is a HUGE shift from its usual stance of insisting 2005 or 2006 as the base year. This is fairly significant for Canadian trackers as it means that Canada has conceded a major policy position, hopefully more concessions are coming from a lot more countries. They are also trying to find some sort of acceptable language on the transfer of technology from developed to developing countries (to facilitate mitigation and adaptation technology use around the world) while dealing with Intellectual Property Rights. Although there have been some positive steps taken today, there is a long way to go before a fair, ambitious and binding treaty is agreed upon. It cannot happen in one day. We are all looking forward to the next COP (hopefully in 6 months in Mexico) where more details can be ironed out. We must keep this momentum going.
Obama Cometh
President Obama comes tomorrow morning and hopefully that will breath some further life into the negotiators. Many groups are calling on him to “earn” his Nobel Price here.
Incidentally, his arrival makes mine a bit more tricky as when the President comes to town the bridge between Sweden (where I am staying) and Denmark (where I need to go) will be shut down. I hope that is not a metaphor for what is to come.
The corridor between plenary rooms, where people meet and mingle
Leaders Converge in the Final Hours: Get Closer to a Deal
December 17, 2009
inside "plenary 1"
Today only 300 individuals from NGOs were allowed in the Bella Centre. These individuals are the only ones allowed in over the next two days, other than Media and individuals on party delegations. It’s a very different experience now that I am excluded from the venue. I tried to stay on top of the negotiations via live feed from the centre and email/internet updates, but it was much more difficult.
I attended the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) side events; one on local, regional and state/provincial initiatives and the other on regulatory oversight of the carbon markets. In the former, Minister Gerretsen told us about the initiatives currently happening in Ontario. I also attended a session about regulation of carbon markets and sat in on parts of a few other session on various issues of emissions trading.
There was a reception with Al Gore and a small group of The Climate Project presenters from around the world in the evening at the Crowne Plaza hotel (forgot my camera – sorry).
Mr. Gore was very positive about these negotiations, although he was deeply disappointed we are not going to come to a better result. He stressed that this is not good enough, and that we must keep going. It was a very inspiring speech.
Update on where things stand at this hour.
From what I can tell with my limited access, the talks have moved considerably. There is good financing on the table. Hilary Clinton came and declared that the U.S. will contribute to a $100 billion as long as conditions of transparency and MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) are met by developing countries (namely China).
Apparently, Canada has agreed to go forward with a 1990 base year in the Kyoto Protocol track of the negotiations, which is a HUGE shift from its usual stance of insisting 2005 or 2006 as the base year. This is fairly significant for Canadian trackers as it means that Canada has conceded a major policy position, hopefully more concessions are coming from a lot more countries. They are also trying to find some sort of acceptable language on the transfer of technology from developed to developing countries (to facilitate mitigation and adaptation technology use around the world) while dealing with Intellectual Property Rights. Although there have been some positive steps taken today, there is a long way to go before a fair, ambitious and binding treaty is agreed upon. It cannot happen in one day. We are all looking forward to the next COP (hopefully in 6 months in Mexico) where more details can be ironed out. We must keep this momentum going.
Obama Cometh
President Obama comes tomorrow morning and hopefully that will breath some further life into the negotiators. Many groups are calling on him to “earn” his Nobel Price here.
Incidentally, his arrival makes mine a bit more tricky as when the President comes to town the bridge between Sweden (where I am staying) and Denmark (where I need to go) will be shut down. I hope that is not a metaphor for what is to come.
The corridor between plenary rooms, where people meet and mingle
Last Day of Broad NGO Imput; Negotiations Stalled; Draft Text Reviewed
December 16, 2009
Here are a few of the gems from the last plenary session, before it was suspended. The bureaucratic negotiations are supposed to be over, and have passed along text to ministers
“The President is consulting on how to go forward with the process of consultations”
“We are like the Titanic, and someone notices we are heading towards the iceberg, but someone else says “no, there’s not iceberg”, and we keep barrelling towards it”
“May I propose that we go and sleep and come back with a refreshed mind”
Soon after that last one the COP was suspended. The text is still very unclean, with lots of brackets. There will probably be some agreement on financing (we hear that Canada will make an announcement tomorrow), there will very likely be a decision on extending the CDM into the future, but there is probably no comprehensive binding agreement just around the corner.
I will not speculate further. Today has been a very slow, frustrating day. The US Delegate told us that there are some hard positions and it may take a change from the ministers or heads of state to actually see movement.
NGOs caused quite a stir today. They are not allowed in tomorrow, save for 300 selected that are allowed to come in for the full two days – no substitutions.
Video on Day 15
December 16, 2009
Check out this video on Day 15 of COP15
Update on Status as of Wednesday Morning, Copenhagen Time
December 16, 2009
Just a brief update. Was here until 1am last night when I gave up on the AWG-LCA; turns out the negotiations did eventually start up again and negotiators went at it until about 6am.
Ministers and Heads of State start negotiating today, but unfortunately the civil-servants didn’t do much to get the text ready for their approval…there is still an unbelievable amount of outstanding issues that the politicians must negotiate to get any agreement.
In case you need a brief recap about what we are doing here:
- there are two main tracks of negotiations – (2) those taking palce under the Kyoto Protocol (amending this treaty, of which Canada is a party with binding emissions reductions committements and the U.S. is not – also note that large emitter-developing countries are not included in the emissions reduction commmittments in this document) referred to as the Ad Hoc Working Group for Amendments to the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and (3) those taking place under the Framework Convention – referred to as the Ad Hoc Working Group for Long-Term Cooperative Action. (AWG-LCA)
Update from last night:
- AWG-KP: stock taking plenary revealed that although progress has been made the text is currently “in no position to be forwarded to the minister”. There are still many unresolved issues, with a variety of options on the table and no clear way forward. There is general agreement that the flexibility mechanisms (CDM, JI and emissions trading) will continue after 2012, and general agreement on a few other issues, but NO consensus on some fundamental issues
- AWG-LCA: this whole text is bracketed. Meaning there is no consensus on ANYTHING. This text we now have is supposed to form a basis for for a new legally binding treaty. At present it is confusing, full of options, and generally very disappointing.
NOTE: someone just came by and yelled: How does it feel to fail everybody….
Also note: someone else just said: “these things often come together in the last minutes”
Here’s hoping
As for the ceremony, it’s ongoing. The high level segment opened yesterday with inspiring views from a number of world leaders and opinion leaders, including appearances and/or speeches by the Queen of Denmark, Prince Charles, Al Gore and Wangari Muta Maathai. It’s amazing that the rhetoric is so far away from the political reality of this issue. But the fact that there seems to be a wave of political will is positive.
Micheal Martin, Canada’s chief negotiator told us this morning that about 100 heads of state have arrived, or will be shortly. Hopefully this means they will actually talk and work something out. However, President Obama probably cannot commit anything much since the domestic U.S. issues are still unresolved. Without the U.S. fully engaged and able to commit, it is unclear there can be much movement forward!
Let’s keep hoping the United Nations is the right forum for action on this. As I sit here delegates of all creeds, cultures, nationalities, views are walking by me. It’s truely an amazing place. We have vast differences, but one commonality. We all are dependant on the same core inputs for survival! We all live on this planet together…I still have faith we can work it out.
Leaked Government Plan Shows No Intention of Meeting Target?
December 15, 2009
On December 14, 2009 CBC News reported on a leaked proposal from Environment Minister Prentice to cabinet outlining a new climate change plan in which it will be virtually impossible for Canada to reach its targets of 20% below 2006 levels by 2020. According to the Climate Action Network Canada, members of which reviewed the leaked document, the proposal aims for 15Mt of reductions in the oil and gas sector, compared to 48 Mt under the Government’s 2007 Turning the Corner policy proposal. In addition to weak targets, regulated firms could make payments into the technology fund instead of making real reductions. The leaked document also showed inequitable treatment among various sectors, with the Alberta tar sands arguably having a lacks target. Based on the proposed plan, Canada would miss the targets it is putting forward in Copenhagen by a wide margin.
The emission cap set in the draft proposal would be absolute caps on “business as usual”, there is no historical reference year and very weak targets compared to what the rest of the industrialized world is doing.
The government claims to be harmonizing policies with the U.S. in actual fact they are far weaker than legislative proposals that are being developed in the U.S.. In a press conference from Tuesday a U.S. representative of the Sierra Club outlined the following as key differences between between this proposed plan and the proposed U.S. plan.
- The US proposal uses a 2005 baseline, whereas the leaked Canadian plan uses “Business As Usual” as a baseline (not a historical baseline)
- The U.S. proposal requires real emissions reductions and does not allow payments into a technology fund to replace the requirement to mitigate.
- In the U.S. proposal, oil and gas sector is never considered to be a trade exposed sector, don’t expect that it will be going forward, whereas in Canada’s leaked proposal the sector is given preferential treatment due to it’s trade exposure.
- In the U.S. proposal all sectors are exposed to the same cap, and some trade exposed
The Sierra Club representative also stated that it would likely be very difficult to harmonize these two proposals in the end. This poses problems for the potentially inevitable border adjustment tarrifs on Canadian goods.
At the press conference, Matthew Bramley from Pembina said: “Canada appears to be negotiating in bad faith. If I was a negotiator of one of the countries here, I would be very upset over this.”
I would too! Even if these documents are out of date, they show a severe lack of ambition that is reflected in the Government’s stance here in Copenhagen. The rest of the world is moving (albeit not fast enough) and wondering if Canada is going to come with them, or be left behind.
Canada is Behind U.S. Not With It: Ranks 2nd last for Climate Policy, No Real Program
December 14, 2009
Canada Failing Behind
PowerUp Canada and Germanwatch/Climate Action Network have released report that dovetail nicely to tell a disturbing story about Canada. Canada claims that it is doing as much or more than the U.S., and our official policy seems to be to “follow the U.S.”. The PowerUp report talks about the different between U.S and Canadian policy, showing the Canadian policy and action trails the U.S.
Major Points taken from page one of report:
- Canada’s global warming emissions are growing – but U.S.’s are declining
- The U.S. government is providing unprecedented levels of support to clean energy and efficiency while Canada’s primary programs are expiring and have not been renewed. Outspending Canada as much as 14-1 per capita on Renewable Energy
- U.S aiming for deeper carbon cuts than Canada’s target by orders of magnitude (although targets proposed at Copenhagen are superficially similar the U.S. target does not include many of the programs before the legislative branch and none of its executive branch programs. Canada has no programs to meet its program to meet its proposed cuts and past policy proposals were deemed inadeqate by independant government and academic auditors
- U.S. federal government has accelerated to unprecedented levels of action on carbon restrictions, efficiency and clear energy in the past year while the Canadian federal government is “not even trying” to match U.S. efforts.
The Germanwatch report called “Climate Change Performance Index 2010″ ranks countries in terms policy to address climate change. Canada Ranked 59th out of 60 countries, in front of ONLY Saudi Arabia. This is unacceptable. U.S. ranks 53rd.
The report goes as far as saying that Canadian policies and emission trend (still rising) contradict acknowledgements by the government that we recognize the importance of staying below a 2degree rise in temperature.
Rankings of Selected countries:
Includes Share of Global Emissions and CCPI rank (last year’s rank in brackets))
United Kingdom 1.81 % 6 (9)
Germany 2.76 % 7 (5)
India 4.57 % 9 (7)
Japan 4.27 % 35 (43)
Iran 1.61 % 38 (39)
Korea, Rep. 1.69 % 41 (41)
Russia 5.48 % 45 (54)
China 20.96 % 52 (49)
United States 19.92 % 53 (58)
Canada 1.98 % 59 (59)
Long Lines Inevitable – Large Leaps Required
December 14, 2009
Today I waited for about an hour to enter the Bella Centre, standing in line with two delegates from Iraq. They explained that it is difficult for the Iraqi government to participate in these negotiations, because they are obviously preoccupied with a war at home.
If we all put our interest in tackling this challenge recognizing it is the greatest security threat in the world – we may move a bit faster! At present the wait to get in is nothing compared to the wait to hear that progress has been made. I’ve been waiting for this plenary to start for 1.25 hours.
Large Delegations Show Interest and Complexity
Lines are long because there are over 20,000 people accredited to attend this conference. Canada alone has over 100 people accredited under its official delegation and hundreds more representing inter-governmental and non-governmental organizations. Most of those accredited with the official delegation are not negotiators from the government, but from provincial ministries and. In Canada, we have our own challenges with federalism that may be complicating matters. The federal government publicly recognizes the challenges it will have in implementing any federal policy since the provincial governments have some jurisdiction over these issues. Provincial governments claim they are moving forward with or without the feds and have a presence here at Copenhagen to communicate the actions being taken provincially.
No matter how complicated the federal government attempts to make our domestic situation sounds – I believe they have the mandate to lead in this area and do what is required, based on science! Then we must get our own house in order, deal with the legislative and constitutional issues and ensure we can deliver!
Negotiations Suspended – Large Leaps Needed
I am sitting in the Plenary now waiting for the informal consultations to address major issues requiring political guidance and all sessions have (apparently) just been suspended because the developing countries (G77) have walked out of certain negotiations. This is not a good sign at the present time!
This meeting was supposed to narrow down the topics that the ministers and heads of state should discuss in the coming days. But the fact that we have a full room with no talking happening is quite worrying. A representative of the President just said “this meeting has been postponed, but please stay here until further notice”. At a previous press conference the COP President said the people have made it clear there will be a political price for not reaching a deal – and that is a price that many leaders are not wanting to pay.
Perhaps all the interest, all the craziness will allow for leaps towards consensus to be made very quickly. However, there are major leaps to be made, it appears that many of those who need to move are cemented in.
